Contingency or Coincidence?—Part 1

I am fascinated by the role of chance in the unfolding of history (as well as prehistory, before we humans came upon the scene). When we look back at events that occurred in the past, we can see that many (if not most) of them were flukes: complete surprises that no one could have foreseen. And when they occurred they dominated the course of events. Had they not happened, the present would have unfolded in an entirely different way. Had not Jack Kennedy been assassinated, for example, how differently would American history have unfolded? Had the Soviet Union not dissolved a quarter century ago, what would the world look like today?

The asteroid that crashed to Earth 65 million years ago and terminated the reign of the dinosaurs is another (prehistory) prime example. Another is the ice age of 10-20 thousand years ago that provided a pathway for Asian wanderers to inhabit the Americas. And, to bring it closer to home, what about that time when, as a teenager, I nearly trashed the family car? Had I expired in the accident, this blog (or my kids) would never have been.

I have tended to classify these events as being either an example of a coincidence or a contingency. They both describe similar happenings. To be more specific, a coincidence usually refers to a couple of events that occurred simultaneously, but with no apparent causal connection. A contingency usually describes a single incident that seems to have been unanticipated. In either case, it's a surprise, a chance, a random happening, a fluke, an unpredictable event.

It is a human tendency, however, to interpret most of these unforeseen events as neither coincidental nor contingent. We dislike having things happen for no apparent reason. We rebel against chance and arbitrariness. We want reasons for things. We read intent into incidents and want to believe that things happen for a purpose. We are inclined to look for patterns, or for the hand of God or some other superhuman cause. Something must have caused this significant thing to happen—it couldn't simply have been chance!

Many people wonder how they are to live their lives, if they concede that the universe is simply a chance unfolding. As Einstein once quipped, “God does not play dice.” He was referring to random events at the quantum level, but many people feel that his comment applies to a much wider range of events.

Having a scientific bent, I have fun speculating about events throughout history; looking at them as if they were quite random and unpredictable. When I let go the inclination to see a particular happening as caused by some powerful agent, I can ponder the many alternative scenarios that could have transpired instead. It helps me to grasp and appreciate just how fickle this world is.

More on contingencies and coincidences next time...