Continuities and Contingencies—Part 1

Recently I was introduced to the concept of “continuities and contingencies,” as described in an interview with scientist Walter Alvarez in Discover magazine. I had never before thought to have linked these two words, so afterwards my mind was abuzz with numerous fascinating implications. As described by Alvarez, continuities are a logical sequence of events, a historical trajectory—which links the future to the past in a predictable manner. If we look at yesterday’s happenings, we can make a pretty good guess about what’s going to happen tomorrow. If I stayed up and partied last night, there’s a good chance I’ll suffer from a hangover tomorrow morning. Continuities can be good predictors.

A contingency is something completely unpredictable. It’s chance; it’s accidental. It may or may not occur. When a contingency comes along, it can blow your continuity out of the water. It utterly changes everything. Alvarez quoted Yale historian John Lewis Gaddis: “I prefer to think of the present as a singularity… through which the future has got to pass in order to become the past. The present achieves this by locking into place relationships between continuities and contingencies.”

I love the mental image that creates, of viewing the future as containing an uncountable number of possibilities that have to pass through the bottleneck of the present moment to become actuality. Many things might possibly happen, but right now, only this one thing actually occurs. Afterwards we look back and note what happened, and make our conclusions—some valid, some specious. A past event may be perceived to have been caused by either continuity (it seemed logical, given what transpired before) or by an unforeseen contingency (the roll of the dice). If I get run over by a truck on my way home from the party, I’ll never suffer from that hangover.

Continuities are what we rely upon; what we hope (or fear) will happen. We plan for the future, doing things now that we trust will lead to things we expect. We want life to be dependable, for there to be coherence in our world. The laws of nature are continuities—expressed as cause and effect. I hold out a ball in my hand, release it, and expect that it will fall. I go to bed, having confidence that the sun will come up in the morning. Our lives take on patterns and cycles that lean heavily on continuities.

But the best-laid plans can go awry. As the saying goes, “Life is what happens when you had other plans.” In other words, contingencies enter the picture and it’s a whole new world. Contingencies bring unexpected events—both favorable and unfavorable. The mate we end up with is not who we expected. The job we landed was not what we planned to do. The flood (or earthquake or car accident) throws us into a completely different situation.

Shortly after Earth was formed, it collided with a planet about the size of Mars. A major chunk of Earth’s mantle was blown into space and later congealed into our Moon. (The rest of the impacting planet joined with the proto-Earth to become a newer and bigger Earth.) Without the Moon’s subsequent steadying influence on us, Earth would not be nearly as life-friendly as it is. What a fortunate contingency for us!

Another example of contingencies and continuities next time…